Aviation Week & Space Technology
June 12, 2000
Pg. 52

U.S. Navy Embarks On P-3 Replacement

By Robert Wall

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Navy is about to award several contracts to explore how to replace its P-3 and EP-3 land-based fleet support aircraft, although few military and industry officials believe the Navy can afford a new aircraft.

Senior Navy officials already had endorsed the idea of remanufacturing and upgrading the existing P-3s, but Defense Dept. officials instructed the service to take a broader look and consider other options for the so-called Multimission Maritime Aircraft (MMA). Service officials have even welcomed the outside influence.

''The Navy doesn't think that [remanufacturing the P-3] is the right approach necessarily, but we do think it's the most affordable,'' said Cdr. C. Alan Easterling, the Naval Air System Command's MMA program manager. ''None of us are really that excited about recycling 1960s and '70s vintage metal and design. We'd like to go with something that we can grow into the year 2040, something with new metal.''

But so far there is no indication the Navy will get more money in the future to buy a new aircraft. Nevertheless, Navy-funded study contracts totaling $1.7 million are expected to explore options ranging from a new aircraft to remanufacturing the P-3. The studies will affect an ongoing analysis-of-alternatives to be completed next year. The Navy then will decide how to proceed with MMA, although it has already sketched a preliminary program schedule. The program's development would start around 2004 with MMA to be fielded no later than 2015.

Among the issues the studies will address is the scope of P-3/EP-3 missions. While the EP-3 mission is unlikely to change much from its highly specialized signals intelligence role, the P-3 mission continues to evolve. Despite what Navy officials concede is a growing submarine threat, the aircraft is being increasingly thrust into other roles, such as precision strike targeting and surveillance and reconnaissance.

As a bridge until MMA plans are final, the Navy is extending the service life of its P-3s. But the service wants to minimize the number of aircraft it puts through that structural renewal process because it would rather spend money on MMA.

With a P-3 remanufacturing as the leading candidate, Lockheed Martin appears to be the front runner for the MMA program. ''We believe the P-3 is still the right solution,'' said Robert Weiss, Lockheed Martin's MMA program manager. Since the low-altitude, submarine hunting mission isn't expected to be abandoned, he noted that the P-3 remains the most efficient system to use.

Among the upgrades Lockheed Martin is considering is new engines. The likely engine to be selected would be the Rolls-Royce Allison AE2100, although Weiss said using Pratt & Whitney's PW150 hasn't been ruled out. Structurally, Lockheed Martin proposes to replace wings, empennage and nacelles. Some of that work is already being done for New Zealand's P-3s. Furthermore, the aircraft would likely be fitted with a new electrical system and environmental controls. A new cockpit and workstation configuration are being considered.

IT WOULD TAKE THE COMPANY about three years before it could produce the first remanufactured P-3, largely because of the long lead time for some of the major components. Besides the relatively low up-front cost of a remanufacture program, the effort appeals to the Navy because it can be scaled to match its budget, which is harder to do with a new aircraft purchase. But the service would like to reduce the crew requirement for the maritime patrol mission, particularly by abandoning the P-3's five-person cockpit, but Easterling said that could be difficult to achieve in a remanufacture program.

With the Navy struggling to fund the MMA program and unlikely to replace the P-3, Northrop Grumman is proposing to use the Global Hawk UAV as an adjunct to the manned aircraft. Company officials are quick to concede they don't want to usurp the P-3 role, noting that weapons delivery, for example, would require a manned aircraft. However, long-range, long-endurance surveillance missions that distract the P-3 from its core missions could be off-loaded to the unmanned aerial vehicle, one industry official said. Those missions include spotting ice in sea-lanes, open ocean surveillance, or even long-dwell electronic intelligence gathering.

Northrop Grumman's analysis states that the coverage provided by P-3s from 18 worldwide bases could be attained with Global Hawk using only six operating locations. Easterling said the Navy is very interested in the concept as a complement to the manned aircraft.

The Navy also is being presented with several concepts for new aircraft. Boeing, for example, is promoting the 737-700 Increased Gross Weight for MMA, noting that the Navy already is buying the aircraft (the C-40) as a replacement for the C-9. When senior Navy leaders endorsed the P-3 remanufacture idea they had not been briefed on the 737 option, which is now attracting attention, says Boeing's MMA program manager, Hank Davis.

He notes that the P-3 already is near its maximum capacity and that the 737, by comparison, has a larger payload. Furthermore, he said, the aircraft would be able to reach its patrolling area much faster because of the higher transit speed of the 737. Although the P-3 is seen as more efficient for the low-altitude antisubmarine warfare mission, Davis said that for the 737 ''the fuel economy at low altitude is very nearly the same'' as for the P-3.

TO OVERCOME NAVY concerns about low-altitude operations with two engines, Boeing has put several senior service officials in its 737 simulator, at times demonstrating the aircraft's performance if an engine is lost on takeoff and while banking at about 300 ft.

The Navy at least is looking at the Boeing data closely. ''We don't want to be too quick to dismiss a Boeing offer under the guise that we cannot afford it,'' Easterling said. One of the benefits, he said, is potentially a much lower operations and support (O&S) cost. ''Our own internal analyses of commercial derivatives suggest that we can reduce the current O&S cost by 50%,'' he said.

Boeing plans to offer several commercial initiatives to reduce operations and support costs, such as commercial pilot training and lease agreements for engines and other components so the Navy doesn't have to buy spares. The 737 would also allow the Navy to use a smaller crew, in part because it has a two-man cockpit. Furthermore, because of the aircraft's speed and endurance the total number of crews required to maintain orbits would also be lower, Davis said. The company this year plans to refine its proposal, including wind tunnel testing to assess weapons carriage on the wing.

Other aircraft expected to be in the MMA equation are a new-build P-3 and business jet-based versions, such as Gulfstream's proposal to use a G-V. Lockheed Martin is considering reopening its P-3 line for MMA and a German and Italian maritime patrol aircraft program that, after a delay, now is expected to be launched next year. Weiss said it would take 4-5 years from reopening the line to delivering the first aircraft.

Australia and Japan also are closely monitoring the MMA program. Australia has wanted to get involved in MMA, but because of the country's defense budget crunch it is unlikely to take an active role. Japan is interested only in data from the MMA studies, in part because the country is considering building its own maritime patrol aircraft.